Dear Students of Prof. Vinod in STAT I.     Your midterm will be on  Thursday, Oct 15, 2009

 

The name of THIS  file is: st1-hw.htm  (stat1 homework)

It is also accessed as: http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1-hw.htm

 

Course outline is at http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/syllabus07.doc

WELCOME! Let us have fun with statistics.  Data analysis can be fun these days since the tedium is gone, great software is available.

For starters see

 

 YouTube - Hans Rosling: No more boring data: TEDTalks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVimVzgtD6w  

http://www.gapminder.org/downloads/applications/  animations etc of panel data  Shows how data can be fun if animated.  The software is apparently available

 

 

 http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi2007/sc_chart.asp
governance indicators for a country
 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4094926727128068265&q=numbersusa&hl=en

somewhat racist but interesting video on Immigration.  Racist because it ignores large European immigrations of earlier era.

It shows how stats can be powerful in political debates

 

BOTTOM LINE Facts and Figures are important.

 

 

ASSIGNMENT 1

Get the software called Statistics  (not business statistics)

You may install the software from the website, www.hawkeslearning.com , by clicking “downloads” then choosing Statistics from the dropdown menu, do the “Full Install” and Run the program and follow the directions.  This part is free.  Once this is complete and the software is installed, you will need to purchase an Access Code in order to be able to use the software.  Do this from our website again by clicking the red “ get your access code ,” then click “purchase an Access Code online” in the middle of the page, choose Statistics and follow the directions.

If you wish to purchase disks to be sent to you for installation, you may do this by going to www.hawkeslearning.com/store , choosing your product, and adding it to your cart, and you can go from there. 

 "Hawkes Learning Technical Support" <support@hawkeslearning.com>

Do not ask people at Fordham help desk. They are not expected to know.

 

Fill out a form with your name. 

When it asks for info on the CD just use the drop down menu and choose STATISTICS

(Not business stats)

 

Accept the license agreement and your access code will appear right there or it will be e-mailed to you.

When you see access code, immediately copy and paste it into a word file and keep that file in a secure and accessible place.  You can buy access code on the Internet.

Write your code in 2/3 secure places.  E-mail it to yourself and a friend. Otherwise, you may have to buy the software again (waste of $37).

 

When asked for course id, use  fordhamstat 

1)You do not need software CD at Fordham, it is for home use. The software CD you buy is not for uploading at Fordham.  The software has already been loaded in Fordham network.  You need to bring the long boring Access Code to the class every week.  Remember z looks like 2, I looks like 1.  You have to type it JUST RIGHT to get it to work.  You know how finicky the computers are! You can go to JMH 3rd floor network facility sooner and try it out if you like.

 

2) subj: blackboard enrollment  (I am thinking of not using this in 2009)

you have already been enrolled in my course at

http://My.fordham.edu

login with your user name and password and see.

Let me know if you are not enrolled.  I can fix that.

 

3) subj:  E-mail seriousness:

You are warned that my E-mails to you are serious business, not to be treated as something that may be quickly read and ignored.  You should carefully read every word.  Perhaps keep a record by saving it as a file somewhere.

 

4) subj: Class seating will be fixed (Thursday, September 10, 2009

The computers in JMH 302 work best when the same student uses them throughout the semester.  Also, if you sit at the same terminal, I can remember your name more easily from a location chart.  Accordingly I have decided that you are required to sit at the same terminal.   

5) Blackboard Use: Student User Guide which is readily available on the Fordham Blackboard web site ( http://fordham.blackboard.com )  not applicable in 2009?

 

7)  Your E-mail to me Subj Line: Please include  (as the case may be) St3 or St4 depending on your section number in the SUBJECT line whenever you send E-mail to me.  Also, please be sure to include your full name and E-mail address at the end of the message.  I get lots of e-mail from around the world and these basic things will help me classify your e-mail properly.

 

8) Do “level of measurement” exercise (Lesson) numbered 1.1 from “certify” mode of the software.  If and when you finish successfully  you will get an 11-character code. Upon certifying any future assigned lesson from computer software, you will be given a Certification Code (this is validation that you completed your certification).   It is recommended that you print and/or save to a floppy disk or thumb drive your Certification Code.  You have to register this code in order to receive credit for the assigned modules if the registration is not automatically done as it is supposed to (if Internet connection is defective or something like that).  Printouts are useful to keep to prove that you have done the computer assignment, if there are computer glitches for whatever reason on your computer or at the hawkeslearning website.

To Register Your Certification Code:

1.       Go to www.quantsystems.com/fordhamstat and log on using your Access Code.

2.       Click on the Register a lesson certificate link. Select the Lesson Name in which you certified. Enter (or load from disk) your Certification Code and click OK. Your certification code is now registered!

3.       You may need to perform these steps after you Certify in each lesson to get credit for each of your assignments.  

 

They need section number for you which depends on the time the class meets.

* Note, you must register each Certification Code ON or BEFORE the due date to get credit for the assignment. To see if this is happening the software lets you look at your won progress report.

 

Your free Internet textbook is at

 http://www.onlinestatbook.com/

by David Lane and others

 

If you have Windows XP or similar compuer

double click on "my computer" Icon and create a folder called "stat1"

within that folder create a folder called "Onlinebook"

Please download the entire book multimedia version zip file and save it to that folder

unzip the zip file and save unzipped version to your computer to the

"c:\stat1\Onlinebook" folder.

The unzipping software creates additional folders to this folder separate for each chapter etc.

The automatic folder names are, for example, "\statistics\online_stat\chapter1\"

 

Please copy the entire unzipped textbook to a portable stick drive or thumb drive which is usually stuck

in the computer's "USB port".  You will need a large enough stick drive.

 

From now on, please bring to class, this zip drive.  (lot lighter than carrying the heavy book, right?)

 

Now look at the pdf file for "descriptive statistics.pdf"  file

and also look at the movie with that title.  If you did the above steps right,

the movies will be found in the folder with the path:

C:\stat1\Onlinebook\statistics\online_stat\chapter1\movies

click on the icon for "descriptive.mov" and listen to it

 

If you do not have movie watching software, download it at

http://www.apple.com/quicktime/download/

 

 

9) Names of classroom PowerPoint slides:  (copy and paste the entire name)

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter1ahd.ppt

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch01pplnhd.ppt

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter2hd.ppt  has levels of measurement, Simpson’s paradox, placebo effect etc. 

 

See all online text movies for chapter 1 as we cover the material in class.

 

Computer Lesson 1.1 and 1.2 are required to be done

called Chapter 1 Review and Test might be done in class.

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/sampl-dis.doc   Only top few pages are relevant for knowing different types of samples

Computer lesson 1.3 deals with sampling.

including simple random sampling, cluster sampling etc.

 

Lessons 2.1 to 2.2a (graphics) and 2.2b (histograms)  2.3

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch02pplnhd.ppt 

slides 1 to 8 have freq distribution (Lesson 2.1), then histograms graphs etc

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter3hd.ppt 

slides 3,4, 11 and 14 have freq distribution (Lesson 2.1)

data display, freq dist, stem-leaf example

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1ch3notes.doc 

has details for freq. distribution construction and then for

HISTOGRAM

 In the free textbook see movies:  line_graphs.mov,  stem_and_leaf.mov (Chapter 2)

Lessons 3.1  and 3.2a and 3.2b (Applying the standard deviation) has grouped data standard deviation and Chebychev's Theorem.  Lesson 3.3 on constructing samples gives a deeper understanding of mean and median. http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson33.doc  constructing samples example

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter4hd.ppt   has mean , median, trimmed mean, MAD percentiles, IQR   See also "additional_measures.mov" in Chapter 3 of your online free textbook.  

Hawkes Learning Lesson 3.4 has percentiles and Box Plots.  http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch03pplnhd.ppt  mean, median, mode, box-whisker plot   see the Chapter 2 movie "boxplots.mov" of your online free textbook.

Do see my notes for chapters 3 and 4

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1ch3notes.doc

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1ch4notes.doc  has classification plus mean, mode etc for classified data, ogive plotting, etc.

 

http://www.indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html

check this out for weights in the Dow Jones industrial average.  It is price weighted, not so good! ignores dividends!

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/130.asp

says that S&P500 index is more scientific. Weights are assigned to each stock according to their market value

Weighted average with weights w of x measurements is always S xw / S w

 

All jargon answered on traditional blue-books (worth 7%) on Thursday Oct 8, 2009.  You are responsible for knowing all material covered till the date of the midterm.  Review jargon items see  http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/jargon.txt

I will give a frequency table and you will be asked to draw "Less than Ogive" and "Greater than Ogive" and determine the median graphically.

Oct 15, 2009 the midterm based on computer lesson chapters 1 and 2 and 3 to be done on the Hawkeslearning software (worth 18% of your overall course grade).

 

CAN I BRING FORMULAS TO THE MIDTERM?  No!

 

DUE DATES for computer lessons are posted at the Hawkeslearning.com website  Click on Progress Report on your software to know the latest due dates.

   Begin probability theory  Lessons from software

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson4p2.doc   has probability rules

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson4p3.doc  has counting rules

lesson 4.4 has additional counting rules file name is lesson4p4.doc

 Online book Chapter 5 deals with probability, go to the movies folder and check out

Intro.mov, and basic_concepts.mov

Bayes theorem is in base_rates.mov

 

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter6hd.ppt  has details of prob theory

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch04ppln.ppt has events, addition rule, conditional probability, E(x), Bayes Thm, SD(x)

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1cntn.doc for contingency tables, probabilities, Bayes Thm proof and examples

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1prob.doc

 

Lesson 5.1 has discrete probality distributions E(x),  SD(x)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1ch4notes.doc  discusses group data mean and variance and E(x), SD(x) are conceptually similar. Since the weights are probabilities when we are finding the mean and standard deviation of probability distributions where the probabilities must add up to 1, the formulas for E(x) and SD(x) when x refers to a probability distribution involve no division by sum of frequencies, Sfj.

 

Begin probability distributions: Binomial Lesson 5.2

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch05pplnhd.ppt has discrete and continuous

Online book Chapter 5 deals with probability, go to the movies folder and check out

Binomial_distribution.mov

 

 

prob distributions, Binom to Hyp & normal

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter7hd.ppt  has E(x), uniform, Binomial, Pascal triangle, Poisson and Hypergeom

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1binom.doc

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson52.doc is Binomial Distribution

 

Expected value and Variance of a random variable around slide #40 of

compare house to buy

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/compareHouse2buy.doc

 

 

Poisson

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1poiss.txt

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson53.doc is Poisson

  

Hypergeometric distribution  around slide #89

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter7hd.ppt

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1hyper.txt

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch05pplnhd.ppt

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson54.doc   Hypergeometric

 

 

Normal Density.   See around slide #31

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch05pplnhd.ppt  has good properties of normal and standard normal

Continuous probability distributions:   Lesson numbers 6.1 to 6.4

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chpt8pt1hd.ppt (how continuous pdf differ, areas, uniform density)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chpt8pt2hd.ppt (reverse z map useful for word problems)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson61Normal.doc (Lesson6.1)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson6p12Normal.doc (given z find area Lessons 6.1& 6.2)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/standardnormalquiz.txt (12 general Q and A)

Hints on doing Normal Dist word problems right

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1norm.txt (normal -4 to 4 set up)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/NormalDistWordProb.doc (lesson 6.3)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/zNormalWordProb.doc (given prob find z Lesson 6.4)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/normalpractice.txt (review normal word problems including proportions, Binom approximations, etc)

Online book Chapter 6 deals with probability, go to the movies folder and check out 

Intro.mov, area_normal.mov,  standard_normal.mov, normal_approx.mov

 Sampling distributions Theory

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch06ppln.ppt  intro to sampling distributions, CLT, proportions

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chpt9pt1hd.ppt  slide 42:Why calculate mean, bias, var(xbar) decreases as n increases

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chpt9pt2hd.ppt  has sampling distribution of mean & prop, CLTheorem, types of samples

 

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/sampl-dis.doc 

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson71.doc  sampling dist of means Norma, LESSON 7.3

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson72.doc  sampling dist of means Normal LESSON 7.3

 

Approximating Binomial by the Normal  see page 348 onward in Hawkes’ text   LESSON 7.4

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1binor.doc

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chpt8pt3hd.ppt

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/normalpractice.txt (review normal word problems including proportions, Binom approximations, etc)

 

if time permits

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson73.doc  sampling dist of proportions  LESSON 7.2

 

 FINAL exam Part I will be during the class on Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009

as a webtest on the computer software during the class.

 

Part I of the Final Exam is currently set at 33% of your grade

will focus on the following lessons from the Hawkeslearning computer software

 

4.1, classical probability

4.2  Probability Rules

4.3  Counting Rules

4.4  Additional counting Techniques

Chapter 4 Review and test

5.1  Discrete Random Variable

5.2, Binomial

5.3, Poisson

5.4, hypergeometric

 

6.2  Reading the Normal curve Table

6.3, normal distribution word problems

6.4, find z

7.2  sampling distribution proportions

7.3, sampling dist means

 

lesson 7.4 now moved to part 2 of the final 

 Midterm=25%, Computer Lessons 27%, Attendance and Participation 5%, Part I of Final=33%  on Thursday, December 10, 2009,

Part 2 of Final Exam 10% wiil have One question on on Sharpe Ratio and/or  uniform density, one on definitions (Jargon items), one on Bayes Theorem will be on Dec 17 or Dec. 21 at 1:30 PM (not 4 pm)

CAN I BRING FORMULAS TO THE Final Exam? Yes and No

 

The textbook has a foldout of formulas and tables. The foldout is also available in Fordham Library Reserve Room.  You are allowed to bring a clean UNMARKED copy of these tables and formulas to midterm and final exam halls.  You will NOT be allowed to share them with another student.