Dear Students of Prof. Vinod in STAT I.     Your midterm will be on  Thursday, Oct 11, 2012

 

The name of THIS  file is: st1-hw.htm  (stat1 homework)

It is also accessed as: http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1-hw.htm

Step-by-step instructions for the mandatory software are also at

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/SoftwareInstructions.doc

. They clarify that you have to explicitly enroll into the course on the Internet at Hawkeslearning beyond enrolling at Fordham.

 

Course outline is at http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/syllabus12.doc

WELCOME! Let us have fun with statistics.  Data analysis can be fun these days since the tedium is gone, great software is available.

For starters see

 

 YouTube - Hans Rosling: No more boring data: TEDTalks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVimVzgtD6w 

http://www.gapminder.org/downloads/applications/  animations etc of panel data  Shows how data can be fun if animated.  The software is apparently available

 

 

 http://info.worldbank.org

 

governance indicators for a country

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4094926727128068265&q=numbersusa&hl=en

somewhat racist but interesting video on Immigration.  Racist because it ignores large European immigrations of earlier era.

It shows how stats can be powerful in political debates

 

BOTTOM LINE Facts and Figures are important.

 

 

Tasks to do:

1) Please go to my website Undergraduate Resources link and then to the syllabus at

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/Syllabus12.doc

 

2) Download the pdf file of the free text from

 Your free Internet textbook is at

 http://www.onlinestatbook.com/

by David Lane and others

Version 1 has a multimedia zip file

you can download it to a folder called “c:\stat1\Onlinebook” as follows

 

If you have Windows XP, 7 or similar computer

double click on "my computer" Icon and create a folder called "stat1"

within that folder create a folder called "Onlinebook"

Please download the entire book multimedia version zip file and save it to that folder

unzip the zip file and save unzipped version to your computer to the

"c:\stat1\Onlinebook" folder.

The unzipping software creates additional folders to this folder separate for each chapter etc.

The automatic folder names are, for example, "\statistics\online_stat\chapter1\"

 

Now look at the pdf file for "descriptive statistics.pdf"  file

and also look at the movie with that title.  If you did the above steps right,

the movies will be found in the folder with the path:

C:\stat1\Onlinebook\statistics\online_stat\chapter1\movies

click on the icon for "descriptive.mov" and listen to it

 

If you do not have movie watching software, download it at

http://www.apple.com/quicktime/download/

 

 

 Look At Version 2 And Table Of Contents Of The Online free Book

Introduction   for a preview of the next class.  Try to do some exercises.(optional)

3) Get the Hawkes Learning “access code” from

www.hawkeslearning.com

and download the software for Statistics  (Not business statistics USe Discovering Stats not Beginning Stats)

Use course id  FordhamStat

Download the software and Check that your access code works.

 

4) Write down the access code several places and e-mail it to yourself and perhaps a friend.  If you lose it you will have lost $50+.  You will need the access code at the time of midterm and final exam to take the web tests.  Since you will not have email on the day of these exams, write the access code on a piece of paper.

 

5) google “r-project” and download R software for using it as a calculator.

 

6) subj:  E-mail seriousness:

You are warned that my E-mails to you are serious business, not to be treated as something that may be quickly read and ignored.  You should carefully read every word.  Perhaps keep a record by saving it as a file somewhere.

Your E-mail to me Subj Line: Please include  (as the case may be) St3 or St4 depending on your section number in the SUBJECT line whenever you send E-mail to me.  Also, please be sure to include your full name and E-mail address at the end of the message.  I get lots of e-mail from around the world and these basic things will help me classify your e-mail properly.

 

7) subj: Class seating will be fixed (during the third class, if not sooner).

If you sit at the same terminal, I can remember your name more easily from a location chart and do the attendance rather quickly.  Accordingly I have decided that you are required to sit at the same terminal.   

 

 

8) Do “level of measurement” exercise (Lesson) numbered 1.1 from “certify” mode of the software.  If you do not have your own computer, you can do the lessons at the language lab in KE B27. If and when you finish successfully  you will get an 11-character code. Upon certifying any future assigned lesson from computer software, you will be given a new Certification Code (this is validation that you completed your certification).   It is recommended that you print and/or save to a floppy disk or thumb drive all your Certification Codes.  If you certify without being connected to the Internet, You will have to further register this code in order to receive credit for the assigned lesson.   The date you register will be the date and time of record when we assume you did the exercise.  If you delay registering, you will likely get a lateness penalty. if the registration is not automatically done as it is supposed to (if Internet connection is defective or something like that).  Printouts are useful to keep to prove that you have done the computer assignment, if there are computer glitches for whatever reason on your computer or at the hawkeslearning website.

To Register Your Certification Code:

Go to www.quantsystems.com/fordhamstat and log on using your Access Code.

Click on the Register a lesson certificate link. Select the Lesson Name in which you certified. Enter (or load from disk) your Certification Code and click OK. Your certification code is now registered!

You may need to perform these steps after you Certify in each lesson to get credit for each of your assignments.  

 

They need section number for you which depends on the time the class meets.

* Note, you must register each Certification Code ON or BEFORE the due date to get credit for the assignment. To see if this is happening the software lets you look at your own progress report.

 

 

 

9) Names of classroom PowerPoint slides:  (copy and paste the entire name)

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter1ahd.ppt

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch01pplnhd.ppt

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter2hd.ppt  has levels of measurement, Simpson’s paradox, placebo effect etc. 

 

See all online text movies for chapter 1 as we cover the material in class.

 

Computer Lesson 1.1 and 1.2 are required to be done

called Chapter 1 Review and Test might be done in class.

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/sampl-dis.doc   Only top few pages are relevant for knowing different types of samples

Computer lesson 1.3 deals with sampling.

including simple random sampling, cluster sampling etc.

 

Lessons 2.1 to 2.2a (graphics) and 2.2b (histograms)  2.3

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch02pplnhd.ppt 

slides 1 to 8 have freq distribution (Lesson 2.1), then histograms graphs etc

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter3hd.ppt 

slides 3,4, 11 and 14 have freq distribution (Lesson 2.1)

data display, freq dist, stem-leaf example

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1ch3notes.doc 

has details for freq. distribution construction and then for

HISTOGRAM

 In the free textbook see movies:  line_graphs.mov,  stem_and_leaf.mov (Chapter 2)

Lessons 3.1  and 3.2a and 3.2b (Applying the standard deviation) has grouped data standard deviation and Chebychev's Theorem.  Lesson 3.3 on constructing samples gives a deeper understanding of mean and median. http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson33.doc  constructing samples example

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter4hd.ppt   has mean , median, trimmed mean, MAD percentiles, IQR   See also " measure_of_central.mov, additional_measures.mov, comparing_measures.mov " in Chapter 3 of your online free textbook.  

Hawkes Learning Lesson 3.4 has percentiles and Box Plots.  http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch03pplnhd.ppt  mean, median, mode, box-whisker plot   see the Chapter 2 movie "boxplots.mov" of your online free textbook.

Do see my notes for chapters 3 and 4

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1ch3notes.doc

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1ch4notes.doc  has classification plus mean, mode etc for classified data, ogive plotting, etc.

 

http://www.indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html

check this out for weights in the Dow Jones industrial average.  It is price weighted, not so good! ignores dividends!

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/130.asp

says that S&P500 index is more scientific. Weights are assigned to each stock according to their market value

Weighted average with weights w of x measurements is always S xw / S w

 

Your midterm will be given in two parts.  The First Part will test your memory regarding jargon items. All jargon questions will be answered on traditional blue-books (worth 4%) on Thursday Oct 11, 2012.  You are responsible for knowing all material covered till the date of the midterm.  Review jargon items see  http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/jargon.txt

Part 2 of the midterm will be a web test on Thursday,

Oct 11, 2012 the web test midterm based on computer lesson chapters 1 and 2 and 3 to be done on the Hawkeslearning software (worth 21% of your overall course grade).

 

CAN I BRING FORMULAS TO THE MIDTERM?    NO

 

After Midterm Exam:

 The file with formulas called  “equations 1.doc” might be e-mailed to you before your final exam.  You can bring an unmarked clean copy of that file to the exam hall during the final exam only.

 

DUE DATES for computer lessons are posted at the Hawkeslearning.com website  Click on Progress Report on your software to know the latest due dates.

 

   Begin probability theory  Lessons from software

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson4p2.doc   has probability rules

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson4p3.doc  has counting rules

lesson 4.4 has additional counting rules file name is lesson4p4.doc

 Online book Chapter 5 deals with probability, go to the movies folder and check out

Intro.mov, and basic_concepts.mov

Bayes theorem is in base_rates.mov

 

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter6hd.ppt  has details of prob theory

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch04ppln.ppt has events, addition rule, conditional probability, E(x), Bayes Thm, SD(x)

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1cntn.doc for contingency tables, probabilities, Bayes Thm proof and examples

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1prob.doc

 

Lesson 5.1 has discrete probality distributions E(x),  SD(x)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1ch4notes.doc  discusses group data mean and variance and E(x), SD(x) are conceptually similar. Since the weights are probabilities when we are finding the mean and standard deviation of probability distributions where the probabilities must add up to 1, the formulas for E(x) and SD(x) when x refers to a probability distribution involve no division by sum of frequencies, Sfj.

 

Begin probability distributions: Binomial Lesson 5.2

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch05pplnhd.ppt has discrete and continuous

Online book Chapter 5 deals with probability, go to the movies folder and check out

Binomial_distribution.mov

 

 

prob distributions, Binom to Hyp & normal

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter7hd.ppt  has E(x), discrete uniform, Binomial, Pascal triangle, Poisson and Hypergeom

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1binom.doc

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson52.doc is Binomial Distribution   (R command ?binom (all lower case) is useful, for example, dbinom(x=1:4,prob=.5, size=4))

 

Expected value and Variance of a random variable around slide #40 of

compare house to buy using Sharpe ratio

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/compareHouse2buy.doc

 

 

Poisson  (R command ?dpois (all lower case) is useful the parameter is conveniently denoted by lambda in R also. for example: dpois(x=1:4,lambda=4))

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1poiss.txt

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson53.doc is Poisson

  

Hypergeometric distribution  around slide #89

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chapter7hd.ppt

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1hyper.txt

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch05pplnhd.ppt  (also has uniform density)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson54.doc   Hypergeometric

 (R command ?hyper (all lower case) is useful but notation is much different, you are selecting x while balls without replacement from an urn containing m while and n blcak balls.  big N becomes m+n, A becomes m, small n becomes k as the number of balls selected)

 

Normal Density.   See around slide #31

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch05pplnhd.ppt  has good properties of normal and standard normal

http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution-table.html

has standard normal tables

Continuous probability distributions:   Lesson numbers 6.1 to 6.4

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chpt8pt1hd.ppt (how continuous pdf differ, areas, uniform density) See Uniform density problem solved near slide No. 17

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/UniformDenExercises.doc  has 2 solved exercises

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chpt8pt2hd.ppt (reverse z map useful for word problems)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson61Normal.doc (Lesson6.1)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson6p12Normal.doc (given z find area Lessons 6.1& 6.2)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/standardnormalquiz.txt (12 general Q and A)

Hints on doing Normal Dist word problems right

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1norm.txt (normal -4 to 4 set up)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/NormalDistWordProb.doc (lesson 6.3)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/zNormalWordProb.doc (given prob find z Lesson 6.4)

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/normalpractice.txt (review normal word problems including proportions, Binom approximations, etc)

Online book Chapter 6 deals with probability, go to the movies folder and check out 

Intro.mov, area_normal.mov,  standard_normal.mov, normal_approx.mov

 Sampling distributions Theory.  Online book Ch. 7 movies on introduction

to sampling distributions, that of mean (CLT) and proportion are useful

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/ch06ppln.ppt  intro to sampling distributions, CLT, proportions

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chpt9pt1hd.ppt  slide 42:Why calculate mean, bias, var(xbar) decreases as n increases

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chpt9pt2hd.ppt  has sampling distribution of mean & prop, CLTheorem, types of samples

 

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/sampl-dis.doc 

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson71.doc  sampling dist of means Norma, LESSON 7.2=sampling distribution of proportions

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson72.doc  sampling dist of means Normal LESSON 7.3

 

Approximating Binomial by the Normal  see page 348 onward in Hawkes’ text   LESSON 7.4

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1binor.doc  has the steps

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/st1binorm.doc  has an example

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/chpt8pt3hd.ppt

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/normalpractice.txt (review normal word problems including proportions, Binom approximations, etc)

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/lesson73.doc  sampling dist of proportions  LESSON 7.2

 http://www.fordham.edu/economics/vinod/reviewDist.doc  has a review of various distributions covered in the class so far.

 

 FINAL exam Part I will be during the class on Thursday, May. 2, 2013

as a webtest on the computer software during the class.

 

Part I of the Final Exam is currently set at 33% of your grade

will focus on the following lessons from the Hawkeslearning computer software

4.3  Counting Rules

5.1  Discrete Random Variable

5.2, Binomial

5.3, Poisson

5.4, hypergeometric

 

6.2  Reading the Normal curve Table

6.3, normal distribution word problems

6.4, find z

6.5  Find t

7.2  sampling distribution proportions

7.3, sampling dist means

 

 Midterm=25%, Computer Lessons 29% (deadline=last day of classes), Attendance and Participation 5%, webtest Part I of Final=33%  on Thursday, May 2, 2012, Part 2 of Final Exam worth 8% will have One question on Sharpe Ratio, one on definitions (Jargon items), one on

7.4  approximating Binomial by Normal 

 on Thursday May 9 The exam time is at 1.30 PM (not 2.30 or 4 pm) the exam location remains unchanged (your classroom).

CAN I BRING FORMULAS TO THE Final Exam? 

The file with formulas called  “formulas1.doc” is at my website.  You can download it and bring only an unmarked clean copy of it to the exam hall.  No other formula sheet is allowed.  This formula sheet may not be the way you remember the formulas, but this is the one you are going to get.  Please prepare by comparing your formulas with mine and know that any gap will have to learned by heart.