Emerging Financial Markets

The Graduate Program in
International Political Economy and Development

ECRU 3270 EMERGING FINANCIAL MARKETS

Instructor: Dr. Henry Schwalbenberg

Description: Intended primarily for students interested in analyzing the dynamics of emerging financial markets in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America. All students must prepare a country study regarding one country's basic macroeconomic performance, foreign exchange market, and stock market. Students will gather information via the university's Bloomberg terminal, the internet, as well as from standard written statistical sources. This information will then be analyzed using standard statistical software.

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Syllabus

Syllabus 1999

Assignments and Informational Aids

Assignments	Informational Aids
1. Domestic Macroeconomic Data a. Quarterly GDP Data Table 1A: GDP Quarterly Data Chart 1A: Quarterly Real GDP b. Annual GDP Data Table 1B: GDP Annual Data Chart 1B: Real Per Capita GDP Chart 1C: Real Annual Growth Rate d. Inflation and Unemployment Table 1C: Inflation and Unemployment Chart 1D: Unemployment Rate Chart 1E: Inflation Rate e. Gov't Surplus Table 1D: Gov't Surplus/Deficit Chart 1F: Gov't Surplus/Deficit	1. Country Assignments 2. Bloomberg Instructions 3. Outline for Country Study Report 4. Emerging Markets Project 5. News Links Yahoo Finance BBC World Service Federal Reserve 6. Class Generated Data Table 1: Domestic Macroeconomic Data Chart 1: Inflation versus Unemployment Table 2: International Macroeconomic Data Chart 2: CAD versus Growth Table 3: Exchange Rate Data Table 4: Stock Market Data
2. International Macroeconomic Data a. Export and Import Data Table 2A: Monthly Exports and Imports (monthly) Chart 2A1: Montly Exports Table 2B: Annual Exports and Imports Chart 2B1: Annual Exports b. Int'l Reserves and BOP Data Table 2C: Internatinal Reserves and BOP Chart 2C1: International Reserves (US$ millions) Chart 2C2: Balance of Payments Chart 2C3: International Reserves (months of imports) Chart 2C4: Domestic Money to Int'l Reserves Ratio c. Interest Rate Data Table 2D: Interest Rates Chart 2D1: Interest Rate Premium d. Debt Ratios Data Table 2E: Debt Ratios Chart 2E1: Debt Service Ratio e. Current Account Deficit/GDP Ratio Table 2F: CAD Ratio
3. Exchange Rate Data a. Volatility Analysis Table 3A: Exchange Rate Volatility Analysis Chart 3A-1: Weekly Spot Exchange Rate b. Trend Analysis Table 3B: Exchange Rate Trend Data Linear Trend Analysis 3B-1: Linear Trend Chart 3B-1: Linear Fit Plot Quadratic Trend Analysis 3B-2: Quadratic Trend Chart 3B-2: Quadratic Fit Plot Polynominal Trend Analysis 3B-3: Polynominal Trend Chart 3B-3: Polynominal Fit Plot c. Auto Regressive Analysis Table 3C: ARMA Data Analysis 3C-1: Significance Test Analysis 3C-2: AR Trend and Forecast Chart 3C-1: AR Residuals Chart 3C-2: AR Plot Fit Chart 3C-3: AR Forecast
4. Stock Market Data a. Stock Indices Table 4A: Stock Indices Chart 4A-1: DJI Chart 4A-2: FTSE Chart 4A-3: N225 Chart 4A-4: Philippines b. Stock Returns Table 4B: Stock Returns (5 years) Chart 4B-1: DJI & Philippines Chart 4B-2: FTSE & Philippines Chart 4B-3: N225 & Philippines Table 4C: Stock Returns (6 months)

The Graduate Program in International Political Economy and Development

ECRU 3270 EMERGING FINANCIAL MARKETS

Syllabus

Assignments and Informational Aids

The Graduate Program in
International Political Economy and Development