Books

• Locked In: The True Causes of Mass Incarceration and How to Achieve Real Reform, Hachette Book Group (2017)

• Sentencing Law and Policy, Foundation Press (2015)

Book Chapters

• "Gary Becker," in Pioneers of Law and Economics, edited by Joshua Wright & Lloyd Cohen (2009)

Published and Forthcoming Papers

• "The Incentives of Private Prisons," 52 Ariz St L J 991 (2021). Link is this: https://arizonastatelawjournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/10-Pfaff.pdf
• "Why the Policy Failures of Mass Incarceration Are Really Political Failures," 104 Minn L Rev 2673 (2020). Link is this: https://minnesotalawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Pfaff_Final.pdfarticle=2094&context=faculty_scholarship
• Theories of Mass Imprisonment no longer forthcoming: is 2020
• "Reckless-Dinitz Lecture: Decarceration's Blindspots," 16 Ohio St J Crim Law 253 (2020). Link is this: https://kb.osu.edu/bitstream/handle/1811/88017/OSJCL_V16N1_253.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
• "A Second Step Act for the States (and Counties, and Cities)", 41 Cardozo L Rev 151 (2019). Link is this: http://cardozolawreview.com/a-second-step-act-for-the-states-and-counties-and-cities/
• "It's About Quality: Private Confinement Facilities in Juvenile Justice" (with Jeffrey A. Butts), 18 Criminology & Pub Pol'y 361 (2019). Link is this: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1745-9133.12435
• "Prosecutors Matter: A Response to Bellin's Review of Locked In." 116 U Mich L Rev Online (2018). Link is this: https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1017&context=mlr_online
• "Theories of Mass Imprisonment,” in CRIMINAL JUSTICE THEORY: EXPLANATIONS AND EFFECTS, edited by Cecilia Chouhy et al. (forthcoming 2018).
• Criminal Punishment and the Politics of Place, 45 FORDHAM URBAN L J 571 (2018)
• “Prosecutorial Guidelines,” in REFORMING CRIMINAL JUSTICE, Vol. 3, edited by Erik Luna (2017)
• The Need for Prosecutorial Guidelines,” in POLICING AND PUNISHMENT: PHILOSOPHICAL PROBLEMS AND POLICY SOLUTIONS, edited by Chris Suprenant (2017)
• The Complicated Economics of Prison Reform, 114 Mich L Rev 951 (2016) (invited book review)
• Federal Sentencing in the States: Some Thoughts on Federal Grants and State Imprisonment, 66 HASTINGS L J 1567 (2015) (invited symposium piece)
• The War on Drugs and Prison Growth: Limited Importance, Limited Legislative Options, 52 Harv J Legis 173 (2015) 
• Escaping from the Standard Story: Why the Conventional Wisdom on Prison Growth is Wrong, and Where We Can Go from Here, 26 Fed Sent Rptr 265 (2014) 
• Waylaid by a Metaphor: A Deeply Problematic Account of Prison Growth (Reviewing Ernest Drucker: A Plague of Prisons), 111 U Mich L Rev 1087 (2013)
• The Micro and Macro Causes of Prison Growth, 28 Ga St U L Rev 1239 (2012) 
• The Myths and Realities of Correctional Severity: Evidence from the National Corrections Reporting Program, 13 Am Law & Econ Rev 491 (2011) 
• The Durability of Prison Populations, 2010 U Chi Legal Forum 73 (2010).
• The Future of Appellate Sentencing Review: Booker in the States, 93 Marquette L Rev 683 (2009) 
• The Challenge of Designing Quality Guidelines for Observational Research, AUSTRALASIAN EVALUATION SOCIETY CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS (2009)
• “Gary Becker,” in PIONEERS IN LAW AND ECONOMICS, edited by Joshua Wright and Lloyd Cohen (2009)
• The Empirics of Prison Growth: A Critical Review and Path Forward, 98 J Crim L & Criminology 547 (2008)
• The Vitality of Voluntary Guidelines in the Wake of Blakely v. Washington: An Empirical Assessment, 19 Fed Sent Rep 202 (2007) 
• The Continued Vitality of Structured Sentencing Following Blakely: The Effectiveness of Voluntary Guidelines, 54 UCLA L Rev 235 (2006)

Working Papers and Works in Progress

• Truth in Sentencing Laws and the Limited Role of the Federal Government (working paper)

Other Publications

• "Reform School: Five Myths About Prison Growth Dispelled." Slate, February 19, 2009.
• "It's the Media, Not Juveniles, Who Are Delinquent: A Panic About Names." Huffington Post, February 3, 2009.