Paul McNelis

Paul McNelis has been on the faculty since 2005. He previously was an economics professor at Georgetown University. Born in Hazleton, Pennsylvania, where his father was an official of the United Mine Workers and his mother worked for the state unemployment office, Professor McNelis completed his theological studies and was ordained as a Catholic priest for the Maryland Province of the Society of Jesus in 1977.

Professor McNelis has worked with various international development organizations in Washington as well as with several central banks, such as the Central Bank of Ireland, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Indonesia, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Bank of Japan. He was a visiting professor at Trinity College, Dublin, in 1986-1987; the first Philips visiting professor at the Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in 1994-1995; and the Gasson Professor of Economics at Boston College in 2001-2002. He has taught in multiple languages, offering short courses in Portuguese and Spanish on neural networks and finance.

His writings are in the field of computational macroeconomics, concentrating on problems of adjustment and financial liberalization in Latin America and Asia. His current research is on applications of neural networks and genetic algorithms for predicting exchange-rate and asset-price instabilities, for assessing the effects of alternative monetary aggregates on inflation and interest rates in the short run, for evaluating credit risks in emerging markets, and for solving real business-cycle models.

Hobbies and Other Interests when not doing Economics, Finance, or Theology:

Music, especially Irish and Brazilian folk and popular music, such as Phil Coulter and Alceu Valenca.

Imagination: travel literature (Bill Bryson, Norman Lewis), movies (Chariots of Fire, Nun's Story, Inn of the Sixth Happiness, Lawrence of Arabia), espionage novels (Lee Child, Barry Eisler, Robert Ludlum), and visiting zoos (Royal Bengal tigers and pandas are my favorites ).

Sports: Running, working out in gym, snorkeling, and novice golf and scuba diving, rooting for the New York Yankees and barracking for St. Kilda Saints (Aussie rules football).

Note: Barracking has nothing to do with our former President, it is Aussie speak for cheering on a team.

• PhD: Economics, The Johns Hopkins University
• Master's: MDiv, Theology, Weston School of Theology
• Bachelor's: Economics and Philosophy, Boston College

• Macroeconomic adjustment of emerging markets
• Computational methods for dynamic models
• Hypothesis testing and forecasting with nonlinear models
• Political macroeconomics of global imbalances
• Bayesian estimation of structural models

• "Money Demand During Hyperinflation and Stabilization: Bolivia, 1980-1989", with Carlos Asilis and Patrick Honohan, Economic Inquiry, 1992.
• "Financial Liberalization and Adjustment: The Cases of Chile and New Zealand", with Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, in Journal of International Money and Finance,1993.
• "Monetary Policy Games with Broad Money Targets: A Linear Quadratic Control Analysis of the United States and Japan" with Carlos M. Asilis, in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1994.
• "A Neural Network Analysis of Brazilian Stock Prices: Tequila Effects vs. Pisco Sour Effects", Journal of Emerging Markets, 1996.
• "Macroeconomic Policy Games and Asset-Price Instability in the EMS: The Cases of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain", with Carlos M. Asilis, in Economic Modelling, 2002.
• "Depreciation, Dollarization, and Uncertainty: A Comparison of Bolivia and Peru",with Liliana Rojas-Suarez.,1996
• "The Effect of the Nikkei and the S&P on the All Ordinaries: A Comparison of Three Models", with Guay Lim, International Journal of Finance and Economics,1998.
• "Approximating and Simulating the Real Business Cycle Model: Parameterized Expectations, Neural Networks, and the Genetic Algorithm", with John Duffy Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2001.
• "Student Evaluations and the Assessment of Teaching Effectiveness: What Can We Learn From the Data?", with Martin D.D. Evans, 2000.
• "Central Bank Learning, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Currency Risks: Should Only Inflation Matter for Monetary Policy?", with Guay C. Lim. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2007.
• "Central Bank Learning and Taylor Rules with Sticky Import Prices", with G.C. Lim, Computational Economics. 2006.
• "Deciphering the Message in Japanese Deflation Dynamics", with Naoyuki Yoshino. Asian Economic Papers, 2004.
• "Forecasting Inflation with Thick Models and Neural Networks" with Peter McAdam. Economic Modelling, 2005.
• Neural Networks in Finance: Gaining Predictive Edge in the Market. January 2005. Elsevier Academic Press. Amazon.com. Mathlab files (programs, utilities, and data) cited in the book.
  Erratum: missing reference to the article by Professor Steven Walczak, discussed in pages 102-103 on sample size for forecasting accuracy: Walczak, Steven (2001). "An Empirical Analysis of Data Requirements for Financial Forecasting with Neural Networks", Journal of Management Information Systems 17, 203-222.
• "Deflationary Dynamics in Hong Kong: Evidence from Linear and Neural Network Regime-Switching Models", with Carrie K.C. Chan. Nov. 2004. Working Paper No. 24/2004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
• "Learning and the Monetary Policy Strategy of the European Central Bank", with Guay C. Lim, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2004.
• "Inflation Targeting, Learning and Q-Volatility in Small Open Economies", with G.C. Lim, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2007
• "The Money-Age Distribution: Empirical Facts and Limited Monetary Models", with Burkhard Heer and Alfred Maussner. Journal of Macroeconomics, 33 (2011), 390-405.
• Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy, with G.C. Lim. MIT Press, Oct. 2008. Review in Economic Record, 2011. 
• "Yen/Dollar Volatility and Chinese Fear of Floating: Pressures from the NDF Market".2013, with Li Gu, Pacific Basin Finance Journal 22:37-49.
• "Was the Gold Standard Destabilizing", with Gabriel Fagan and James Lothian. 2013,Journal of Applied Econometrics, 28:231-249.
• "Monetary Regime Choice in Singapore: Would A Taylor Rule Outperform Exchange Rate Management?", with Hwee Kwan Chow and Guay Lim, 2014, Journal of Asian Economics,30:63-81.
• "Alternative Government Spending Rules: Effects on Welfare and Income Inequality" 2013, with Guay C. Lim, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 17:1496-1518.
• Regional Capital Mobility in China: Economic Reform with Limited Financial Integration, with Jennifer Lai and Isabel Yan, 2013. Journal of International Money and Finance, 37:493:503.
• Macroeconomic Dynamics Under High Accumulation of Government Debt: Lessons from Japan, with Naoyuki Yoshino, 2012, Advances in Complex Systems, 15:1-29.
• Macroeconomic Volatility and Counterfactual Inflation Targeting in Hong Kong, with Guay Lim, 2012, Pacific Economic Review, 17:304-325.
• Tax-Rate Rules for Reducing Government Debt: An Application of Computational Methods for Macroeconomic Stabilization, with Guay Lim, forthcoming, in Shu-Heng Chen and Mak Kahouan, editors, Handbook on Computational Economics and Finance, Oxford University Press.
• Monetary Regimes and Share Price Volatility in East Asia, with Yu-Ning Huang, Working Paper, Sept. 2012.
• Finding Stability in a Time of Prolonged Crisis: Debt and Deficit Targeting in Japan. with N. Yoshino. Working Paper, Nov.2014.
• Growth and Income Inequality: Why Trade and Financial Openness Matter, with Guay Lim. Working Paper, Nov. 2014.
• TARGET Balances and Macroeconomic Adjustment to Sudden Stops in the Euro Area, with Gabriel Fagan. Working Paper, Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College, Dublin, Nov. 2014.